Recent news of the Bitcoin price hitting the $9000 mark was greeted with excitement on most online cryptocurrency forums. The recent upward price movement follows a severe bear market that lasted throughout 2018 and the first quarter of 2019. Market participants heaved a sigh of relief in May 2019, when the price reached $6000 for the first time since November 2018 and signaled the return of a bullish trend. Following this, a 50% surge within a one-month period took the bitcoin price to $9000 on the 15th of June. This has effectively removed all doubts of a lingering bear market. However, for potential investors ready to join the bitcoin market, an important question remains unanswered. How high will the Bitcoin Price go?
Before attempting to answer the question, it is important to note that the information in this post does not constitute financial advice. The price of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, in general, are highly volatile and difficult to predict.
There is, however, a lot of insight to be gained from studying historical price data. By identifying patterns that have been consistently repeated over the years, we can predict price movements with some degree of accuracy. While, hourly, daily, and weekly charts are not very useful for this type of analysis, price charts with years of data come in handy.
One way to ascertain the next direction of the bitcoin price is to find out how long major bullish trends usually last. From the all-time bitcoin chart above, one can trace the various bull cycles and how long they lasted. The chart shows the first major bull cycle lasting from August 2010 to June 2011 (10 months). The second went on for twelve months between November 2012 and November 2013. The third and most recent lasted throughout 2017. This means that historically, a bullish bitcoin cycle goes on for approximately 11 months. If this is anything to go by, potential investors can expect the current upward trend to continue for at least six more months.
Another important piece of information to look at is the fact that every bullish cycle came with an all-time-high that surpassed the previous one. Now, considering the last all-time-high was almost $20,000, potential investors can at least double any investment they make at the current $9000 level should the pattern repeat itself.
As the saying goes, “history never repeats itself but it rhymes.” If history is rhyming now, then we know we have several months before the current bullish cycle turns around. We also know there is still a lot of upward movement needed to surpass the previous $19,500 all-time high.
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