After Bitcoin’s strong performance in 2017, the bear market of 2018 took its toll on the grassroots community. Many who had made unfathomable gains during the previous year were horrified to see it wiped out in a harsh crypto winter.
That all seems to have changed now, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have made a spectacular comeback in 2019, Bitcoin is currently up a whopping 150% since the beginning of the year. A few weary traders and investors are asking themselves now, is bitcoin in a bull market again?
Bitcoin, like any other asset class, goes through market cycles, these cycles reflect the emotions and sentiment of the participants, during times of positivity and price increases we term it a Bull Market and during times of negativity and price declines we call it a Bear Market. The famous “Wall Street Cheat Sheet” illustrates what the typical market cycle looks like and if you look closely you will notice a striking similarity to the Bitcoin Price Chart.
As a result of the continuous disappointing rallies during 2018 one could be forgiven for being in a state of disbelief that this time it will be different, but if one looks at the Wall Street Cheat Sheet there is reason for hope, if we are in disbelief what comes next is “hope” which then sets off the next exuberant rise.
In traditional markets which include equities, many traders use an indicator called the 21 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) to judge whether a stock is generally bullish or generally bearish. If the price is above the 21 EMA it is Bullish and if it’s below its bearish. If one applies the 21 EMA to the monthly chart of Bitcoin you will notice that the last time Bitcoin opened and closed a candle above this yellow line it set off the rally to nearly $20 000.
Now as of June 2019, for the first time since 2015 the Bitcoin price has opened and closed its first candle above the 21 EMA after spending months below it.
Some will argue that there are many different indicators and we cannot simply rely on one indicator to forecast the future price of a Bitcoin bull run. No one can say for sure but if history Rhymes then we could be in for a wild ride!
What do you think, is bitcoin in a bull market again? Either way, it may not be a bad time to stack some Satoshis!
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