Many people feel they have missed the bitcoin boat or rocket, so to speak. Those who feel that they were not fortunate enough to have heard about bitcoin before it went parabolic, those who swear they will buy if it drops to X price again. However, when this moment arrives they are paralyzed into fear, wondering with doubt, is now the time to buy Bitcoin?
Market Cycles and trends
Like any market, Bitcoin price goes through market cycles where there is an imbalance in buyers and sellers. This means that during some stages there is more buying pressure than selling and at other times the opposite. These are known as Bull Markets and Bear Markets. Periods, where the price is caught in a range, are known as consolidations. We have been in a multi-month consolidation after a strong run-up in price that has now broken down, this could be the start of a downward trend or we may find support and move higher again.
The macro time frame, monthly specifically, still shows a strong bullish bias and this movement could be the cool off to set in a higher low before resuming the uptrend.
Mati Greenspan from eToro makes the case that Bitcoin could be coming down to its 200 SMA (200-day price average) which has been helpful in defining bull and bear market phases in the past for Bitcoin.
“In this analysis, we mentioned that in the likely event of a breakout to the downside, the most likely level of support would come at the 200-day moving average, which is getting a good test as we speak.”
Mati has even starting allocating some of his portfolio to buy back in at this level as he tweeted out today:
He echoes the old school adage by seasoned Bitcoiners that goes “Buy the dip”. Another way of saying, Dollar Cost Average (DCA), often used to scale into an investment position during a bull market.
Fear and Greed
“Be Fearful when the market is greedy and be greedy when the market is fearful”, the quote made famous by legendary investor Warren Buffet could really ring true when it comes to the current price movements of Bitcoin.
The Crypto Fear and Greed index has registered a 15 on the sentiment scale, a level that is not typically held for long before a counter move is witnessed.
Could this be signaling a good time to buy Bitcoin? Time will tell but if your strategy is based on the long term potential of Bitcoin these corrections on shorter time frames should not deter you, rather they may be the opportunity you have been waiting to buy bitcoin at a discount.
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